TOPIC: ISSUE41 - "Such nonmainstream areas of inquiry as astrology, fortune-telling, and psychic and paranormal pursuits play a vital role in society by satisfying human needs that are not addressed by mainstream science."

WORDS: 633          TIME: 1:09:01          DATE: 2006-7-13

 

In these complex societies, many areas such as astrology, fortune-telling, and psychic and paranormal pursuits become parts of people's life besides the mainstream science. People always want to forecast their future in work, marriage or other things. However, these just content people's curiosity but not turn to be the most important areas in people's life.

 

Astrology and fortune-telling mean that people who forecast the fortune of somebody or the whole society by means of some phenomena or people's whole appearance. As a traditional fortune-telling technology in old China, astrology may be a useful way to judge the whole situation such as martial forecast. For instance, during the period of Three Countries in old China, Zhu Geliang, the militarist of country Shu, could use the astrology as means to judge their enemies’ behavior successfully, even forecast the whole country's overthrow or boom by examination the phenomena changed in the sky or the star moving and hiding. He once used such technology successfully bear down their enemy of Wei, the other country of that periods. Some of such astrology has been come down in this modern society of China. People would forecast some persons' fortune situation in working or marriage, which is what most people want to know. Sometimes people would consider it to be a convincing way to know their future when the forecasts about their life are nice and turn to be glad. In fact, most of these people believe these nonmainstream areas of inquiry are ascribed to their curiosities to these areas. They mostly want to know how it comes to be and why it can forecast. Some people may mainly want to try whether the judgment of their personal information is real or not.

 

However, to some extend, most of these forecasts may be groundless for their judgment only on the people's appearance or their born data even their name. In fact, most people own the same born data and the same name, in this assumption, these people would have the same future and the same working or marriage situation, but it is not the fact we know. Their judgment is groundless and unscientific as it stands for us.

 

It may be hamful for us to believe these forecast means such as astrology, fortune-telling, and psychic and paranormal pursuits. Take the Fa Lun Gong in China for example, which is established by a person named Li Hongzi, who once deceive people that he can use the Qi Kung, traditional Kung Fu in China, to cure people's illness. He overspread his ideal all of the whole country of China by the way of his speach, and most people turn to be on the hook of these cheat. At last, these organization of Fa Lun Gong make most people out of mind and keep fasting for long time until their dying because of their belief it is the best way to keep health, but what they got only dying and broken family.Even some self-burning events have been happend in the Tian'an Men square of China which induce the most confusion of the whole society. In fact, Li Hongzi have not the ability of Qi Kung, the traditional Kung Fu really can prevent people from illness. However, most people's blind belief make them out of mind and directly induce the confusion of the whole society including some families been broken. Now, Fa Lun Gong is the illegal organization for Chinese and it has been banned.

 

In sum, people would not blindly believe such these areas of astrology and fortune-telling otherwise it may damage them even the whole society. It is not illegal for people to believe only if people do not break the whole society and other people's benefits. Only the science would be the mainstream and a safe belief in the whole society.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT202 - Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions.

WORDS: 505          TIME: 0:39:43          DATE: 2006-7-13

 

In this argument, the arguer concludes that it is not the human behaviors but the change of some climate or other environmental factors induce the extinctions of large mammal in Kaliko land. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the fact that there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals and no bones of large mammal have been found on such areas to prove that humans have not hunted the mammals. However, a careful examination, we could find that there are several flaws as follows.

 

To begin with, the fact that there is no evidence about the humans contact with the mammals is groundless as it stands. It was happened 3000 years ago, which is so long for human to get these evidence about their contact with mammals. It is possible that there were some records about humans contact with mammals which were disappeared during these long years. In addition, even if there is no evidence to prove that human had contact with the mammals; the arguer can not make such a conclusion that humans cannot have been a factor in the species’ extinctions. It may really be the humans' arriving induces their extinctions. For instance, it is possible that after humans’ inhabitation the large mammal can not hunt foods such as fishs which may be their usual foods for them but hunted out by human. Thus, most of the large mammals may starve to death.

 

Furthermore, what the archaeologists have discovered that no such areas containing fish bones contained the bones of large mammals supports little to the conclusion. Fist, it is possible that the bones of fish may be real the large mammals' bones. Whether the archaeologists analyzed throughly about difference between these two bones of fish and mammals is not provide in this argument. It is vague to make such a conclusion merely based on this evidence. Second, even if it is not the mammals' bone, it is not convincing to make this conclusion by the fact that there are no such numerous sites containing the bones of large mammals. It is possible that human hunted the large mammals and eat them at different places. Because of their large body of mammals, people could not eat them at the same time like the little-body fish. Thus it can not be numerous but fewer bones of mammals discarded on one site.

 

Finally, there are other factors beside humans hunting such as other natural enemies which eat the mammals but not only the factors change of some climate and other environmental factor. It is possible that their natural enemy but not the humans eat the mammals and induce their extinctions.

 

In sum, the conclusion is unconvincing for us as it stands. To support this argument, the arguer should take account the detail evidence to prove that there is little humans contact with the mammals. Furthermore, to better evaluate the conclusion, we need know whether there are some other natural enemies on the Kaliko Islands which induce their extinctions.

迫于无赖，最近在研究牛顿和爱因斯坦、托勒玫和哥白尼、布鲁诺等等之间的关系，没办法，写Issue找不到论据真的很痛苦的。

结果在网上就搜到了这样一条笑话：

 

 

一群伟大的科学家死后在天堂里玩藏猫猫，轮到爱因斯坦抓人，他数到100睁开眼睛，看到所有人都藏起来了，只有牛顿还站在那里。

    爱因斯坦走过去说：“牛顿，我抓住你了。”

    牛顿：“不，你没有抓到牛顿。”

    爱因斯坦：“你不是牛顿你是谁？”

    牛顿：“你看我脚下是什么？”

    爱因斯坦低头看到牛顿站在一块长宽都是一米的正方形的地板砖上，不解。        

    牛顿：“我脚下这是一平方米的方块，我站在上面就是牛顿/平方米，所以你抓住的不是牛顿，你抓住的是帕斯卡。”

ISSUE120 - "So much is new and complex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provides little guidance for living in the present."

 

 

2006-06-26                    Time: 01:27:25                  410 words

A. Understanding the past can show us inspirational examples of success.

B. Studying history can also help us avoid repeating mistakes

C. The study of past is important because the relevant historical antecedents can help us fully appreciate our present challenges.

 

In our society, with the development of science and technology, the standard of living is steadily improving compared with that of before, accompanied with the other developing such as moral standard of people, economy, culture, art, education and so on. How change it can be, and why? Many factors should be considered to the development of our society included the effect of history, which is important foundation for our new and complex today.

 

Understanding the past can show us inspirational examples of success. As expressed by Li Shiming, the emperor of dynastic Tang, that using the history as a mirror, we can see the future prosperity or decay. That is means that we can learn from historic events and judge our current behavior which is helpful or not. Take the academic study for example, all of our study such as on organic synthesize is basic on the past study of basic organic chemistry which is concerning about chemical basic principle, whether some organic compound can be synthesized successfully or not is determined by their basic principle. Many of such analogical examples can be found in our general life, and we can always be inspired by the past.

 

Furthermore, studying history can also help us avoid repeating mistakes. With the similar environment as past, some events such as mistakes may be repeated in current situation. But, if we can learn form the historical events, some mistakes can be avoided easily. Take the drug suck for example, many drug taker are damaged by drug and induced to family broken and society unrest. This situation can be known by many people, and we can learn form it and avoid to approach drug. That is what Francis Bacon spoken like "histories make men wise".

 

The study of past is important because the relevant historical antecedents can help us fully appreciate our present challenges. Our antecedents can leave their experiment to us over field on work, study, life and other behavior. For instance, in the middle period of 20 century, our country began to establish socialistic country, many constitutions and status should be constructed, without the initial help of Soviet Union, we may suffer more challenges as it before.

 

To sum up, history is necessary to improve our development not only covered on science and technology but also on our trivial life. Even if it is new and complex of today, the past also provides important guidance for living, working and studying in the present.

Argument 17                                  06-06-24       rainy      501 words

17. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."

 

 

In this argument, the arguer recommends that Walnut Grove's town council should continue using EZ to collects trash, rather than switching to ABC Waste, even though EZ's monthly fee is $500 more than ABC's. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that EZ collects trash twice a week which is more often than that of ABC. The arguer also point out that, although EZ possess the same number of trucks compared with ABC, EZ has ordered additional trucks. In addition, the arguer cites the results of a recent survey that 80 percent of respondents agreed that they were satisfied with EZ's performance. A careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

 

In the first place, the fact that EZ collects trash twice as often as ABC is significant only if the town would benefits form an additional collection each week. But the arguer does not provide the evidence that additional collection each week would be proper for the citizen of the town. Oppositely, the amount of trash in the town may be not so excessive that once collection a week might be sufficient for them, and the additional collection may interrupt their customary life.

 

In the second place, the fact that EZ has ordered more trucks proves little in itself about which service will be the better choice for Walnut Grove. There is no evidence to prove that the larger the number of trucks is, the better the service will be. The arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the number of trucks and the service. In addition, the arguer does not point out what is the time EZ will purchase the additional trucks, how many it will be, and what is the function of the additional trucks. All of this condition should be considered to decide whether the additional trucks is more helpful or not to the residents.

 

Last but not least, the mere fact that most respondents to a recent survey considered EZ's service satisfactory provides little support to the arguer's recommendations. From the survey quoted in the argument, however, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitudes of all residents as a whole. Furthermore, there are no relevant surveys about the attitudes of the residents to ABC Waste. Even if they are satisfied with EZ, it is entirely possible that they would be even more satisfied with ABC's service.

 

In summary, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that residents in Walnut Grove would benefit from an additional collection each week, and the use of additional trucks would helpful to them. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the survey relevant to the attitude of residents to the service both of EZ and ABC.

“我怎么找不到你了”，听师兄说钱老师找我，我去了后钱老师这么跟我说。说起来我已经有好几天没有开工了，最近这段时间天天抱个红包书在啃，今天好不容易把8000个词汇啃完了四遍，结果能认识的单词还是寥寥无几，我已经无语了。最近天天晚上熬到凌晨一两点,实验室师姐前几天也说我变憔悴了。看来周末只有去踢球游泳来弥补一下了。接下来的整个暑假依然要忍受着孤独寂寞。实验室的师兄师妹也很快就要走了，突然多了几分失落感！哎～～